25,000 American Airlines Miles for 5 Hilton Stays

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Yesterday I received an email for an offer that is incredible on the surface: 25,000 American Airlines miles and Hilton Gold Status for five Hilton stays!

How good of a deal is this? Should you register?

Yesterday I received an email with the subject line “25,000 AAdvantage miles and Hilton HHonors Gold status” from americanairlines@aadvantage.email.aa.com.

The email said that

• I was targeted to receive Hilton Gold Status upon registration
• Three Hilton stays before 12/31/13 would get me Gold Status through March 2015
• Five Hilton stays before 12/31/13 would get me 25,000 AAdvantage miles

I am not sure whether signing up for a new account would count as being a new member.

Should you participate?

I value 25,000 AAdvantage miles at $442.50. I would value Hilton Gold Status at about $15 per day on future Hilton stays. It gets you free internet and free breakfast.

If you can get more value from the AAdvantage miles and Hilton Gold Status than it would cost you–on the margin–to make five Hilton stays, you should participate.

What is the cost of a Hilton stay on the margin?

If you make a pure mattress run, where you don’t even stay in the room, subtract the full cost of the room (plus your gas, time, etc) from the value of this promo.

If you make a mattress run but get some value from the room–say you value a staycation at $20–subtract the difference between the room’s cost and your value for the room from the value of the promo.

If you change a hotel stay to a Hilton when you would otherwise book another property, subtract the incremental difference in the Hilton’s price from the value of the promo. For example, imagine you would stay at a Holiday Inn for $100 on an upcoming trip, but this promo makes you stay at a Hilton for $150. Imagine that you value a stay at both hotels the same. In that case, subtract $50–the extra cost of the Hilton–from the promo’s value.

If you would stay at a Hilton anyway, subtract nothing from the value of the promo.

Now subtract the marginal cost as detailed above of all five stays from the promotion’s value. If the value is still greater than zero, participate.

You will be more likely to participate if you value Hilton Gold status highly because you expect to use it and if you use American Airlines miles well.

Fourth Quarter Promos

It seems like a lot of airlines and banks have a lot of their marketing budget left for the year because we are seeing some fantastic promos that have started since October 1.

Last week we saw:

• US Airways Share Miles with 100% Bonus = 1.13 Cent Dividend Miles
• Citi Offering 3 AAdvantage Miles Per Dollar on Gas, Groceries, and More. Targeted?
• Barclay’s offering US Airways Offering Cardholders up to 50% Back on Redeemed Miles
• How to Combine US Airways Promotions to Get Two Tickets to Europe for $284 Each
• Barclaycard Arrival World MasterCard Offering 7 Miles Per Dollar on Gas, Restaurants, and More